Vanguard S&P 500 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
12.35%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
13.00%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
14.75%
increased by 1.69%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 9, 2010 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1492 | 7.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1572 | 7.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7951 | 33.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0203 | 2.76*** |
| γ2 | -0.0265 | -2.81*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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