V-Lab
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
13.86%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Week
14.32%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
15.61%
increased by 0.90%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 9, 2010 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1484 | 7.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1570 | 7.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7952 | 33.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0203 | 2.79*** |
| γ2 | -0.0266 | -2.85*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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