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Vanguard S&P 500 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

12.81%

decreased by 1.22%

1 Week

13.03%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Month

13.75%

decreased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

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graph of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 9, 2010 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 6.72 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1013
1.83*
αARCH0.1290
6.86***
βGARCH0.9743
61.75***
νDF6.7182
1.62

0.974

Persistence

27d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1013
1.83*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1290
6.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9743
61.75***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.7182
1.62

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

27 days