V-Lab
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
12.81%
decreased by 1.22%
1 Week
13.03%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Month
13.75%
decreased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 9, 2010 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 6.72 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1013 | 1.83* |
| αARCH | 0.1290 | 6.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9743 | 61.75*** |
| νDF | 6.7182 | 1.62 |
0.974
Persistence27d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1013 | 1.83* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1290 | 6.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9743 | 61.75*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.7182 | 1.62 |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
27 days
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