Vanguard S&P 500 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
11.94%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Week
12.23%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Month
13.14%
increased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 9, 2010 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1173 | 7.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1293 | 27.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9748 | 244.43*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.6481 | 6.54*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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