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Vanguard S&P 500 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

11.94%

decreased by 1.11%

1 Week

12.23%

decreased by 0.82%

1 Month

13.14%

increased by 0.09%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 9, 2010 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1173
7.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1293
27.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9748
244.43***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.6481
6.54***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days