CBOE Volatility Index

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How volatility evolves over time

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{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	81
αARCH	0.0000	0.00
βGARCH	0.8011	35.10***
γleverage	0.2687	9.92***
λ₁tau intercept	0.1054	1.62
λ₂forecast adj.	0.4007	2.43**
λ₃tau persistence	0.4918	2.32**

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	81
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0000	0.00
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8011	35.10***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.2687	9.92***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.1054	1.62
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.4007	2.43**
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.4918	2.32**

V-Lab

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Vanguard S&P 500 ETF Analyses