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BondBloxx CCC-Rated USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

8.42%

increased by 0.25%

1 Week

8.03%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Month

7.68%

decreased by 0.49%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC

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graph of BondBloxx CCC-Rated USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 26, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8356
20.06***
γleverage0.1870
3.74***
λ₁tau intercept0.0568
1.72*
λ₂forecast adj.0.6887
3.13***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.929

Persistence

9d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8356
20.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1870
3.74***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0568
1.72*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.6887
3.13***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.929

Half-life:

9 days