BondBloxx CCC-Rated USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
9.15%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
8.87%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Month
8.22%
decreased by 1.28%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 26, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8366 | 20.20*** |
| γleverage | 0.1837 | 3.76*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0560 | 1.77* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.6896 | 3.15*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.928
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8366 | 20.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1837 | 3.76*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0560 | 1.77* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6896 | 3.15*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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