V-Lab
BondBloxx CCC-Rated USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
6.65%
increased by 0.14%
1 Week
6.55%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
6.25%
decreased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 26, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7102 | 5.16*** |
| αARCH | 0.1268 | 1.74* |
| βGARCH | 0.8197 | 9.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0820 | 4.05*** |
0.946
Persistence13d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7102 | 5.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1268 | 1.74* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8197 | 9.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0820 | 4.05*** |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
13 days
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