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V-Lab

BondBloxx CCC-Rated USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

5.02%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

5.15%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Month

5.66%

increased by 0.36%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of BondBloxx CCC-Rated USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 26, 2022 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 200 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.76 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9015
7.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0980
28.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9965
1,773.19***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.7585
6.24***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

200 days