V-Lab
BondBloxx CCC-Rated USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
6.84%
increased by 0.47%
1 Week
6.93%
increased by 0.56%
1 Month
7.26%
increased by 0.89%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 26, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 204 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~204 daysv = 5.73 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8912 | 1.81* |
| αARCH | 0.0960 | 7.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9966 | 462.68*** |
| νDF | 5.7349 | 1.58 |
0.997
Persistence204d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8912 | 1.81* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0960 | 7.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9966 | 462.68*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.7349 | 1.58 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
204 days
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