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V-Lab

BondBloxx CCC-Rated USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

4.91%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

5.05%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Month

5.54%

increased by 0.35%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

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2Y ·

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graph of BondBloxx CCC-Rated USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 26, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 212 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9109
7.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0967
29.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9967
1,839.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.8070
6.09***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

212 days