V-Lab
BondBloxx CCC-Rated USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
4.91%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
5.05%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Month
5.54%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 26, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 212 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9109 | 7.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0967 | 29.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9967 | 1,839.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.8070 | 6.09*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
212 days
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