BondBloxx CCC-Rated USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
9.43%
1 Week
9.49%
1 Month
9.69%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 26, 2022 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 226 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.0336 | 1.82* |
| αscore | 0.1010 | 6.65*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9969 | 479.30*** |
| νDF | 6.5439 | 1.15 |
0.997
Persistence226d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.0336 | 1.82* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1010 | 6.65*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9969 | 479.30*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5439 | 1.15 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
226 days
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