V-Lab
BondBloxx CCC-Rated USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
3.98%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
4.14%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
4.71%
increased by 0.61%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 26, 2022 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 242 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~242 daysv = 5.74 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9538 | 1.89* |
| αARCH | 0.0959 | 7.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9971 | 506.42*** |
| νDF | 5.7385 | 1.60 |
0.997
Persistence242d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9538 | 1.89* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0959 | 7.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9971 | 506.42*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.7385 | 1.60 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
242 days
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