V-Lab
iShares MSCI France ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
17.57%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
17.78%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
18.51%
increased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5692 | 7.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0868 | 38.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9893 | 721.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5572 | 7.53*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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