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V-Lab

iShares MSCI France ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

17.57%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Week

17.78%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

18.51%

increased by 0.68%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI France ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 2, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5692
7.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0868
38.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9893
721.58***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5572
7.53***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

64 days