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V-Lab

iShares MSCI France ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

12.95%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Week

13.33%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Month

14.68%

increased by 1.16%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI France ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 2, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5580
7.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0869
38.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9893
718.97***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5321
7.57***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

64 days