V-Lab
iShares MSCI France ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
15.38%
increased by 0.98%
1 Week
15.65%
increased by 1.25%
1 Month
16.64%
increased by 2.24%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.55 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 64-day half-lifev = 7.55 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.5447 | 1.93* |
| αARCH | 0.0866 | 9.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9893 | 180.13*** |
| νDF | 7.5483 | 1.88* |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5447 | 1.93* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0866 | 9.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9893 | 180.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5483 | 1.88* |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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