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iShares MSCI France ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

18.36%

increased by 0.80%

1 Week

18.54%

increased by 0.98%

1 Month

19.18%

increased by 1.62%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI France ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 2, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 64-day half-lifev = 7.57 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.5422
1.94*
αARCH0.0866
9.53***
βGARCH0.9892
179.96***
νDF7.5690
1.87*

0.989

Persistence

64d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5422
1.94*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0866
9.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9892
179.96***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5690
1.87*

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

64 days