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V-Lab

iShares MSCI France ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

11.85%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Week

12.29%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

13.80%

increased by 1.45%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI France ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 2, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 65-day half-lifev = 7.53 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.5549
1.92*
αARCH0.0868
9.62***
βGARCH0.9894
180.71***
νDF7.5331
1.90*

0.989

Persistence

65d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5549
1.92*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0868
9.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9894
180.71***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5331
1.90*

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

65 days