Skip to main content
V-Lab

Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

10.20%

decreased by 1.84%

1 Week

10.38%

decreased by 1.66%

1 Month

11.05%

decreased by 0.99%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 126 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7598
7.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1713
37.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9945
1,327.77***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.3264
35.54***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

126 days