V-Lab
Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
14.49%
decreased by 3.06%
1 Week
14.58%
decreased by 2.97%
1 Month
14.91%
decreased by 2.64%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~120 daysv = 3.46 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7154 | 1.74* |
| αARCH | 0.1714 | 9.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9942 | 313.94*** |
| νDF | 3.4606 | 7.91*** |
0.994
Persistence120d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7154 | 1.74* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1714 | 9.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9942 | 313.94*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4606 | 7.91*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
120 days
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