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Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

14.49%

decreased by 3.06%

1 Week

14.58%

decreased by 2.97%

1 Month

14.91%

decreased by 2.64%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC

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graph of Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~120 daysv = 3.46 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7154
1.74*
αARCH0.1714
9.87***
βGARCH0.9942
313.94***
νDF3.4606
7.91***

0.994

Persistence

120d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7154
1.74*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1714
9.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9942
313.94***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.4606
7.91***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

120 days