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Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

25.73%

increased by 6.08%

1 Week

25.67%

increased by 6.02%

1 Month

25.47%

increased by 5.82%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:17 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~111 daysv = 3.46 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.7778
1.77*
αscore0.1638
9.80***
βpersistence0.9938
309.30***
νDF3.4580
8.14***

0.994

Persistence

111d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.7778
1.77*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1638
9.80***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9938
309.30***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.4580
8.14***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

111 days