Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
7.77%
decreased by 1.49%
1 Week
7.87%
decreased by 1.39%
1 Month
8.18%
decreased by 1.08%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0654 | 2.07** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3580 | 3.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6121 | 5.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -41.7708 | -2.00** |
| γ2 | 71.9278 | 2.33** |
| γ3 | -55.1963 | -3.49*** |
| γ4 | 36.9195 | 4.09*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
Other Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs