Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
10.13%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Week
10.60%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Month
12.19%
increased by 0.95%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~77 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0564 | 2.19** |
| αARCH | 0.3502 | 5.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6408 | 9.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -69.4094 | -2.21** |
| γ2 | 114.6174 | 2.58*** |
| γ3 | -85.0496 | -3.73*** |
| γ4 | 72.2079 | 3.64*** |
| γ5 | -43.4264 | -2.63*** |
0.991
Persistence77d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0564 | 2.19** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3502 | 5.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6408 | 9.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -69.4094 | -2.21** |
| γ2 | 114.6174 | 2.58*** |
| γ3 | -85.0496 | -3.73*** |
| γ4 | 72.2079 | 3.64*** |
| γ5 | -43.4264 | -2.63*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
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