V-Lab
Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
11.22%
decreased by 2.70%
1 Week
11.58%
decreased by 2.34%
1 Month
12.91%
decreased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 321 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~321 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0120 | 2.13** |
| αARCH | 0.3709 | 5.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6269 | 8.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -116.7596 | -1.91* |
| γ2 | 155.4161 | 2.05** |
| γ3 | -35.3347 | -1.05 |
| γ4 | -41.0145 | -1.45 |
| γ5 | 85.7451 | 3.45*** |
| γ6 | -66.7418 | -3.19*** |
0.998
Persistence321d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0120 | 2.13** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3709 | 5.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6269 | 8.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -116.7596 | -1.91* |
| γ2 | 155.4161 | 2.05** |
| γ3 | -35.3347 | -1.05 |
| γ4 | -41.0145 | -1.45 |
| γ5 | 85.7451 | 3.45*** |
| γ6 | -66.7418 | -3.19*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
321 days
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