V-Lab
Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
11.77%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Week
12.28%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Month
12.83%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7610 | 1.65* |
| αARCH | 0.1727 | 2.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5881 | 3.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 11.1523 | 0.18 |
| γ2 | -97.3313 | -1.11 |
| γ3 | 164.2294 | 2.82*** |
| γ4 | -76.1337 | -1.78* |
| γ5 | -39.9161 | -0.69 |
| γ6 | 93.8351 | 1.40 |
| γ7 | -178.1672 | -3.11*** |
| γ8 | 263.5261 | 6.54*** |
| γ9 | -191.7687 | -8.41*** |
0.761
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7610 | 1.65* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1727 | 2.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5881 | 3.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 11.1523 | 0.18 |
| γ2 | -97.3313 | -1.11 |
| γ3 | 164.2294 | 2.82*** |
| γ4 | -76.1337 | -1.78* |
| γ5 | -39.9161 | -0.69 |
| γ6 | 93.8351 | 1.40 |
| γ7 | -178.1672 | -3.11*** |
| γ8 | 263.5261 | 6.54*** |
| γ9 | -191.7687 | -8.41*** |
Persistence:
0.761
Half-life:
3 days
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