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Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

11.59%

decreased by 1.18%

1 Week

12.18%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Month

20.02%

increased by 7.25%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 3610 trading days (~14.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~3610 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0078
0.43
βGARCH0.7937
36.06***
γleverage0.3967
12.41***
λ₁tau intercept8.2526
3.62***
λ₂forecast adj.0.2393
1.92*
λ₃tau persistence0.6579
1.95*

1.000

Persistence

3610d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0078
0.43
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7937
36.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3967
12.41***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

8.2526
3.62***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2393
1.92*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6579
1.95*

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

3610 days