Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
11.59%
1 Week
12.18%
1 Month
20.02%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 3610 trading days (~14.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0078 | 0.43 |
| βGARCH | 0.7937 | 36.06*** |
| γleverage | 0.3967 | 12.41*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 8.2526 | 3.62*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.2393 | 1.92* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.6579 | 1.95* |
1.000
Persistence3610d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0078 | 0.43 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7937 | 36.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3967 | 12.41*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 8.2526 | 3.62*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2393 | 1.92* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6579 | 1.95* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3610 days
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