Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
10.12%
1 Week
11.84%
1 Month
24.29%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1711 trading days (~6.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0208 | 2.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7720 | 108.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4137 | 65.34*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 1.56 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6354 | 1.24 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1711 days
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