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Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

8.99%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Week

10.27%

increased by 0.45%

1 Month

19.21%

increased by 9.39%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1413 trading days (~5.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1413 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.0062
0.32
βGARCH0.7804
54.30***
γleverage0.4259
14.36***
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
3.12***
λ₂forecast adj.0.6337
2.55**
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

1.000

Persistence

1413d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0062
0.32
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7804
54.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4259
14.36***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
3.12***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.6337
2.55**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1413 days