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V-Lab

Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

8.31%

decreased by 1.59%

1 Week

9.61%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Month

18.23%

increased by 8.33%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1690 trading days (~6.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0117
1.34
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7832
107.75***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4093
60.70***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
1.46
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.6448
1.16
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1690 days