V-Lab
Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
8.99%
1 Week
10.27%
1 Month
19.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1413 trading days (~5.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0062 | 0.32 |
| βGARCH | 0.7804 | 54.30*** |
| γleverage | 0.4259 | 14.36*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 3.12*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.6337 | 2.55** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence1413d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0062 | 0.32 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7804 | 54.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4259 | 14.36*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 3.12*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6337 | 2.55** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1413 days
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