V-Lab
Ishares Large CAP ACC OT ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
8.31%
1 Week
9.61%
1 Month
18.23%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1690 trading days (~6.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0117 | 1.34 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7832 | 107.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4093 | 60.70*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 1.46 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6448 | 1.16 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1690 days
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