Global X Nasdaq-100 Income Edge ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
19.40%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
19.23%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
18.88%
decreased by 0.84%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 18, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 13.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 13.21 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3646 | 1.48 |
| αARCH | 0.0635 | 0.93 |
| βGARCH | 0.8849 | 1.91* |
| νDF | 13.2119 | 0.04 |
0.885
Persistence6d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3646 | 1.48 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0635 | 0.93 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8849 | 1.91* |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 13.2119 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
0.885
Half-life:
6 days
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