Global X Nasdaq-100 Income Edge ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
30.35%
1 Week
32.44%
1 Month
41.75%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 18, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 189 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8723 | 590.60*** |
| γleverage | 0.2480 | 7.43*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 17.48*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.6196 | 11.82*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.3804 | 8.50*** |
0.996
Persistence189d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8723 | 590.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2480 | 7.43*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 17.48*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6196 | 11.82*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.3804 | 8.50*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
189 days
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