V-Lab
Global X Nasdaq-100 Income Edge ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
11.71%
1 Week
16.08%
1 Month
58.67%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 18, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 384 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7482 | 401.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 200.32*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.0431 | 0.37 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8451 | 0.33 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
384 days
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