Global X Nasdaq-100 Income Edge ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
21.74%
1 Week
25.45%
1 Month
45.49%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 18, 2026 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 161 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 7,575.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7457 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -5,813.95*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 9.9969 | 419.09*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4688 | 751.36*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5312 | 435.73*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
161 days
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