V-Lab
Global X Nasdaq-100 Income Edge ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
11.37%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
11.33%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Month
11.30%
decreased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:47 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 18, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6910 | 4.02*** |
| αARCH | 0.0388 | 0.57 |
| βGARCH | 0.6776 | 0.80 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -11.9726 | -2.28** |
0.716
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6910 | 4.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0388 | 0.57 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6776 | 0.80 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -11.9726 | -2.28** |
Persistence:
0.716
Half-life:
2 days
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