V-Lab
iShares US Real Estate ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
14.01%
increased by 0.36%
1 Week
14.20%
increased by 0.55%
1 Month
14.79%
increased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 16, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6740 | 5.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1184 | 8.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8524 | 56.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0635 | 2.38** |
| γ2 | -0.1305 | -3.26*** |
| γ3 | 0.0975 | 3.84*** |
| γ4 | -0.0086 | -0.38 |
| γ5 | -0.0828 | -2.38** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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