V-Lab
iShares US Real Estate ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
13.52%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
13.81%
increased by 0.27%
1 Month
14.82%
increased by 1.28%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 16, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 177% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.48 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0256 | 6.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1029 | 8.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8921 | 84.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3314 | 4.88*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4792 | 7.88*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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