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V-Lab

iShares MSCI France ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

12.67%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Week

13.18%

decreased by 0.00%

1 Month

15.03%

increased by 1.85%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI France ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 2, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 270% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.24 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0315
22.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0934
29.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9047
320.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4841
16.37***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2393
36.83***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

43 days