V-Lab
iShares MSCI France ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.67%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Week
13.18%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
15.03%
increased by 1.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 270% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.24 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0315 | 22.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0934 | 29.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9047 | 320.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4841 | 16.37*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2393 | 36.83*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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