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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Australia ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

16.68%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

16.98%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Month

18.08%

increased by 0.81%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Australia ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.43 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0322
25.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0672
31.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9200
484.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6048
18.95***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4260
37.28***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days