iShares MSCI Australia ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
16.68%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
16.98%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
18.08%
increased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.43 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0322 | 25.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0672 | 31.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9200 | 484.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6048 | 18.95*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4260 | 37.28*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
Other iShares MSCI Australia ETF Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on ETFs