iShares MSCI Australia ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
16.22%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
16.52%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
17.56%
increased by 0.92%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0382 | 17.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0198 | 9.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9112 | 471.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1033 | 19.23*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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