iShares MSCI Australia ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
15.37%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
15.72%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
16.91%
increased by 1.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0382 | 4.42*** |
| αARCH | 0.0202 | 2.54** |
| βGARCH | 0.9106 | 117.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.1037 | 4.81*** |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0382 | 4.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0202 | 2.54** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9106 | 117.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1037 | 4.81*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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