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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Australia ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

17.19%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Week

17.52%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Month

18.17%

increased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Australia ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0031
0.89
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7814
84.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1781
24.61***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0159
3.71***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0482
4.95***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9446
84.05***

Persistence:

0.874

Half-life:

5 days