V-Lab
iShares MSCI Australia ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
17.19%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
17.52%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
18.17%
increased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0031 | 0.89 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7814 | 84.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1781 | 24.61*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0159 | 3.71*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0482 | 4.95*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9446 | 84.05*** |
Persistence:
0.874
Half-life:
5 days
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