V-Lab
iShares MSCI Australia ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
20.49%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
20.63%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
21.04%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7059 | 6.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.1053 | 7.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8532 | 47.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1038 | -5.24*** |
| γ2 | 0.1784 | 6.14*** |
| γ3 | -0.1391 | -5.68*** |
| γ4 | 0.0968 | 4.29*** |
| γ5 | -0.0289 | -1.54 |
| γ6 | -0.0093 | -0.70 |
0.958
Persistence16d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7059 | 6.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1053 | 7.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8532 | 47.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1038 | -5.24*** |
| γ2 | 0.1784 | 6.14*** |
| γ3 | -0.1391 | -5.68*** |
| γ4 | 0.0968 | 4.29*** |
| γ5 | -0.0289 | -1.54 |
| γ6 | -0.0093 | -0.70 |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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