V-Lab
iShares MSCI Australia ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
16.34%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
16.90%
increased by 0.52%
1 Month
18.52%
increased by 2.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7019 | 6.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1051 | 6.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8532 | 47.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1050 | -5.26*** |
| γ2 | 0.1799 | 6.13*** |
| γ3 | -0.1384 | -5.54*** |
| γ4 | 0.0939 | 4.13*** |
| γ5 | -0.0248 | -1.31 |
| γ6 | -0.0124 | -0.92 |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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