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V-Lab
V-Lab

iShares MSCI Australia ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

20.49%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Week

20.63%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

21.04%

increased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Australia ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7059
6.71***
αARCH0.1053
7.03***
βGARCH0.8532
47.44***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.1038
-5.24***
γ20.1784
6.14***
γ3-0.1391
-5.68***
γ40.0968
4.29***
γ5-0.0289
-1.54
γ6-0.0093
-0.70

0.958

Persistence

16d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7059
6.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1053
7.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8532
47.44***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.1038
-5.24***
γ20.1784
6.14***
γ3-0.1391
-5.68***
γ40.0968
4.29***
γ5-0.0289
-1.54
γ6-0.0093
-0.70

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days