iShares MSCI Australia ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
15.17%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
15.51%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
16.70%
increased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:50 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.48 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-lifev = 10.48 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.5165 | 2.47** |
| αscore | 0.0863 | 9.52*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9868 | 161.32*** |
| νDF | 10.4812 | 0.98 |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.5165 | 2.47** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0863 | 9.52*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9868 | 161.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.4812 | 0.98 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
Other iShares MSCI Australia ETF Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs