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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Australia ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

20.92%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

21.02%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

21.39%

increased by 0.25%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Australia ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifev = 8.58 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.3632
2.38**
αARCH0.0793
9.55***
βGARCH0.9863
156.78***
νDF8.5825
1.25

0.986

Persistence

50d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3632
2.38**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0793
9.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9863
156.78***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.5825
1.25

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days