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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Australia ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

16.98%

increased by 0.92%

1 Week

17.22%

increased by 1.16%

1 Month

18.07%

increased by 2.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Australia ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3607
9.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0791
38.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9863
623.09***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.5404
5.02***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days