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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Australia ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

16.13%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

16.41%

increased by 0.28%

1 Month

17.39%

increased by 1.26%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Australia ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.52 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3623
9.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0790
38.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9863
617.22***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.5210
5.01***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days