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V-Lab

TDAQ Lift ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

41.00%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Week

42.48%

increased by 1.09%

1 Month

56.36%

increased by 14.97%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

All

graph of TDAQ Lift ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~77 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9130
191.53***
γleverage0.1560
6.46***
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
46.16***
λ₂forecast adj.0.5766
13.91***
λ₃tau persistence0.4234
25.68***

0.991

Persistence

77d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9130
191.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1560
6.46***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
46.16***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5766
13.91***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.4234
25.68***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

77 days