TDAQ Lift ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
41.00%
1 Week
42.48%
1 Month
56.36%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9130 | 191.53*** |
| γleverage | 0.1560 | 6.46*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 46.16*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.5766 | 13.91*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.4234 | 25.68*** |
0.991
Persistence77d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9130 | 191.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1560 | 6.46*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 46.16*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5766 | 13.91*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4234 | 25.68*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
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