V-Lab
TDAQ Lift ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
18.92%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
19.08%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
19.34%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.3973 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.7736 | 39.04*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.2264 | 11.83*** |
0.397
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3973 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7736 | 39.04*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2264 | 11.83*** |
Persistence:
0.397
Half-life:
1 days
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