TDAQ Lift ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
26.50%
increased by 0.27%
1 Week
26.44%
increased by 0.21%
1 Month
26.30%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 27.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 27.62 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.7036 | 2.82*** |
| αARCH | 0.0487 | 1.28 |
| βGARCH | 0.9240 | 2.84*** |
| νDF | 27.6161 | 0.02 |
0.924
Persistence9d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7036 | 2.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0487 | 1.28 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9240 | 2.84*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 27.6161 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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