V-Lab
TDAQ Lift ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
23.83%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
24.19%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
25.07%
increased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 32.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 32.84 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.7427 | 3.57*** |
| αARCH | 0.0459 | 1.15 |
| βGARCH | 0.9236 | 2.64*** |
| νDF | 32.8407 | 0.02 |
0.924
Persistence9d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7427 | 3.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0459 | 1.15 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9236 | 2.64*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 32.8407 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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