V-Lab
TDAQ Lift ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
23.93%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
24.39%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
25.43%
increased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 38.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifev = 38.60 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8310 | 4.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.0468 | 0.86 |
| βGARCH | 0.9149 | 2.20** |
| νDF | 38.5958 | 0.01 |
0.915
Persistence8d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8310 | 4.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0468 | 0.86 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9149 | 2.20** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 38.5958 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.915
Half-life:
8 days
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