V-Lab
TDAQ Lift ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
29.28%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
29.17%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Month
28.84%
decreased by 0.88%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 76.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.0993 | 12.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0296 | 0.72 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9565 | 7.04*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 76.5274 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
16 days
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