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TDAQ Lift ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

23.83%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Week

24.19%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

25.07%

increased by 0.81%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC

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Date Range:

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6M ·

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graph of TDAQ Lift ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 32.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 32.84 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.7427
3.57***
αARCH0.0459
1.15
βGARCH0.9236
2.64***
νDF32.8407
0.02

0.924

Persistence

9d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7427
3.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0459
1.15
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9236
2.64***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

32.8407
0.02

Persistence:

0.924

Half-life:

9 days