TDAQ Lift ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
29.47%
increased by 0.76%
1 Week
29.20%
increased by 0.49%
1 Month
28.49%
decreased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2026 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 44.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9852 | 14.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0371 | 1.06 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9249 | 5.74*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 43.9973 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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