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TDAQ Lift ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

23.93%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Week

24.39%

increased by 0.05%

1 Month

25.43%

increased by 1.09%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of TDAQ Lift ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 38.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifev = 38.60 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.8310
4.83***
αARCH0.0468
0.86
βGARCH0.9149
2.20**
νDF38.5958
0.01

0.915

Persistence

8d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8310
4.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0468
0.86
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9149
2.20**
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

38.5958
0.01

Persistence:

0.915

Half-life:

8 days