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TDAQ Lift ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

26.50%

increased by 0.27%

1 Week

26.44%

increased by 0.21%

1 Month

26.30%

increased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

All

graph of TDAQ Lift ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 27.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 27.62 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.7036
2.82***
αARCH0.0487
1.28
βGARCH0.9240
2.84***
νDF27.6161
0.02

0.924

Persistence

9d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7036
2.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0487
1.28
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9240
2.84***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

27.6161
0.02

Persistence:

0.924

Half-life:

9 days