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V-Lab

Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

11.84%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

12.05%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

12.62%

increased by 0.54%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 9, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0443
3.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8835
30.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1123
4.30***

Persistence:

0.940

Half-life:

11 days