V-Lab
Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.95%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
11.28%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
12.12%
increased by 1.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 9, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0446 | 3.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8795 | 28.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1175 | 4.46*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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