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V-Lab

Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

10.95%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

11.28%

increased by 0.16%

1 Month

12.12%

increased by 1.00%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 9, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0446
3.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8795
28.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1175
4.46***

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days