V-Lab
Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
207.20%
increased by 2.38%
1 Week
207.21%
increased by 2.39%
1 Month
207.24%
increased by 2.42%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 23-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.46 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9366 | 19.77*** |
| γleverage | 0.0683 | 0.50 |
0.971
Persistence23d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.46 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9366 | 19.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0683 | 0.50 |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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