YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
39.36%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Week
39.13%
decreased by 1.03%
1 Month
38.36%
decreased by 1.80%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1603 | 1.28 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9357 | 28.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0642 | 1.18 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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