Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

SPDR Gold Shares GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

24.15%

increased by 3.44%

1 Week

24.07%

increased by 3.36%

1 Month

23.79%

increased by 3.08%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SPDR Gold Shares GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2004 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~80 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0127
3.14***
αARCH0.0741
3.59***
βGARCH0.9322
68.72***
γleverage-0.0299
-0.94

0.991

Persistence

80d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0127
3.14***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0741
3.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9322
68.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0299
-0.94

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

80 days