V-Lab
SPDR Gold Shares GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
26.15%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
26.05%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
25.68%
decreased by 0.65%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~83 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0125 | 3.12*** |
| αARCH | 0.0740 | 3.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9325 | 69.24*** |
| γleverage | -0.0297 | -0.94 |
0.992
Persistence83d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0125 | 3.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0740 | 3.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9325 | 69.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0297 | -0.94 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
83 days
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