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V-Lab

SPDR Gold Shares GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

23.98%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Week

23.90%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Month

23.63%

decreased by 0.97%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SPDR Gold Shares GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2004 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 67% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0127
12.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0740
14.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9322
275.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0296
-3.71***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

80 days