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V-Lab

SPDR Gold Shares GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

26.15%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Week

26.05%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

25.68%

decreased by 0.65%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of SPDR Gold Shares GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~83 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0125
3.12***
αARCH0.0740
3.60***
βGARCH0.9325
69.24***
γleverage-0.0297
-0.94

0.992

Persistence

83d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0125
3.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0740
3.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9325
69.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0297
-0.94

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

83 days