Skip to main content
V-Lab

SPDR Gold Shares GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

21.88%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Week

21.84%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Month

21.67%

decreased by 0.69%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SPDR Gold Shares GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2004 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 67% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0130
12.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0748
14.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9314
272.42***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0302
-3.75***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

78 days