V-Lab
SPDR Gold Shares GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
24.15%
increased by 3.44%
1 Week
24.07%
increased by 3.36%
1 Month
23.79%
increased by 3.08%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2004 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~80 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0127 | 3.14*** |
| αARCH | 0.0741 | 3.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9322 | 68.72*** |
| γleverage | -0.0299 | -0.94 |
0.991
Persistence80d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0127 | 3.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0741 | 3.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9322 | 68.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0299 | -0.94 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
80 days
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