V-Lab
SPDR Gold Shares GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
21.88%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
21.84%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Month
21.67%
decreased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2004 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 67% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0130 | 12.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0748 | 14.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9314 | 272.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0302 | -3.75*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
78 days
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