SPDR Gold Shares GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
25.37%
increased by 0.51%
1 Week
25.29%
increased by 0.43%
1 Month
24.98%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2004 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~87 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0121 | 3.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.0727 | 3.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9338 | 70.46*** |
| γleverage | -0.0288 | -0.92 |
0.992
Persistence87d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0121 | 3.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0727 | 3.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9338 | 70.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0288 | -0.92 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
87 days
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