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V-Lab

SPDR Gold Shares GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

23.68%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Week

23.60%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Month

23.29%

decreased by 0.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SPDR Gold Shares GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2004 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0143
14.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0616
19.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9285
294.57***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days