SPDR Gold Shares GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
23.68%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Week
23.60%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Month
23.29%
decreased by 0.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2004 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0143 | 14.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0616 | 19.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9285 | 294.57*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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