V-Lab
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
21.22%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
21.33%
increased by 0.14%
1 Month
21.75%
increased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~80 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0250 | 4.51*** |
| αARCH | 0.0991 | 11.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8922 | 103.36*** |
0.991
Persistence80d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0250 | 4.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0991 | 11.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8922 | 103.36*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
80 days
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