V-Lab
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
20.58%
increased by 0.64%
1 Week
20.71%
increased by 0.77%
1 Month
21.19%
increased by 1.25%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 377% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 377% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0290 | 4.21*** |
| αARCH | 0.0313 | 2.48** |
| βGARCH | 0.8990 | 97.71*** |
| γleverage | 0.1177 | 4.62*** |
0.989
Persistence63d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0290 | 4.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0313 | 2.48** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8990 | 97.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1177 | 4.62*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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