State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
33.93%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Week
33.78%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Month
33.21%
decreased by 1.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 366% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0290 | 16.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0319 | 10.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8988 | 389.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1168 | 18.13*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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