State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
36.60%
decreased by 1.35%
1 Week
36.41%
decreased by 1.54%
1 Month
35.68%
decreased by 2.27%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 368% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0289 | 16.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0319 | 9.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8989 | 389.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1171 | 18.14*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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