V-Lab
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
32.55%
increased by 3.03%
1 Week
32.42%
increased by 2.90%
1 Month
31.93%
increased by 2.41%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 365% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0291 | 16.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0320 | 10.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8986 | 389.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1169 | 18.12*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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