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State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

32.56%

increased by 6.05%

1 Week

32.43%

increased by 5.92%

1 Month

31.96%

increased by 5.45%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 384% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 384% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0291
4.21***
αARCH0.0309
2.46**
βGARCH0.8990
97.66***
γleverage0.1185
4.67***

0.989

Persistence

64d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0291
4.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0309
2.46**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8990
97.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1185
4.67***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

64 days