State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
40.34%
increased by 13.01%
1 Week
40.10%
increased by 12.77%
1 Month
39.17%
increased by 11.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 386% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 386% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0290 | 4.20*** |
| αARCH | 0.0308 | 2.45** |
| βGARCH | 0.8991 | 97.88*** |
| γleverage | 0.1190 | 4.69*** |
0.989
Persistence65d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0290 | 4.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0308 | 2.45** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8991 | 97.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1190 | 4.69*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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