State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
24.41%
increased by 5.40%
1 Week
24.40%
increased by 5.39%
1 Month
24.37%
increased by 5.36%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 88% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 88% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0467 | 6.54*** |
| αARCH | 0.1516 | 7.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7615 | 60.97*** |
| γleverage | 0.1334 | 3.96*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0467 | 6.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1516 | 7.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7615 | 60.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1334 | 3.96*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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