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V-Lab

Invesco DB Energy Fund Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

36.83%

decreased by 1.54%

1 Week

36.85%

decreased by 1.52%

1 Month

36.93%

decreased by 1.44%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Energy Fund AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 137 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 43% more than positive returns

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0301
19.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1169
21.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8530
275.17***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0501
6.13***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

137 days