V-Lab
Invesco DB Energy Fund AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
33.27%
decreased by 1.65%
1 Week
33.22%
decreased by 1.70%
1 Month
33.05%
decreased by 1.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.43) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0366 | 2.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0893 | 7.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8972 | 75.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4288 | 3.05*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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