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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

18.46%

increased by 0.35%

1 Week

18.74%

increased by 0.63%

1 Month

19.71%

increased by 1.60%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.55) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0156
1.70*
αARCH0.0842
9.20***
βGARCH0.9011
95.71***
γleverage0.5451
5.24***

0.985

Persistence

47d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0156
1.70*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0842
9.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9011
95.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5451
5.24***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days