V-Lab
iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
18.46%
increased by 0.35%
1 Week
18.74%
increased by 0.63%
1 Month
19.71%
increased by 1.60%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.55) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0156 | 1.70* |
| αARCH | 0.0842 | 9.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9011 | 95.71*** |
| γleverage | 0.5451 | 5.24*** |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0156 | 1.70* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0842 | 9.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9011 | 95.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5451 | 5.24*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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