V-Lab
iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
14.76%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
15.44%
increased by 0.68%
1 Month
17.04%
increased by 2.28%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 322% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0366 | 7.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8286 | 124.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1177 | 21.61*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0110 | 5.55*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0458 | 5.72*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9496 | 110.23*** |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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