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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

15.39%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

15.82%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Month

16.96%

increased by 1.05%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 319% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0370
8.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8285
125.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1182
21.73***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0105
5.63***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0443
5.81***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9513
115.86***

Persistence:

0.925

Half-life:

9 days