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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

16.40%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

16.79%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

17.64%

increased by 0.89%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 320% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0370
8.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8283
125.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1185
21.75***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0106
5.63***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0444
5.81***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9512
115.62***

Persistence:

0.925

Half-life:

9 days