V-Lab
iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
15.39%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
15.82%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
16.96%
increased by 1.05%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 319% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0370 | 8.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8285 | 125.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1182 | 21.73*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0105 | 5.63*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0443 | 5.81*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9513 | 115.86*** |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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