iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
17.17%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
17.39%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
18.18%
increased by 0.74%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8769 | 6.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0785 | 36.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9912 | 694.12*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5973 | 6.40*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
79 days
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