Skip to main content
V-Lab

iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

17.17%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

17.39%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

18.18%

increased by 0.74%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8769
6.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0785
36.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9912
694.12***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5973
6.40***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

79 days