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iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

17.85%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Week

18.09%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Month

18.94%

increased by 0.58%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

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graph of iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 228% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 228% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0305
4.79***
αARCH0.0373
3.15***
βGARCH0.9097
96.21***
γleverage0.0848
3.97***

0.989

Persistence

65d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0305
4.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0373
3.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9097
96.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0848
3.97***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

65 days