iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
18.24%
increased by 0.96%
1 Week
18.46%
increased by 1.18%
1 Month
19.26%
increased by 1.98%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 227% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 227% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0304 | 4.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.0371 | 3.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9101 | 96.60*** |
| γleverage | 0.0842 | 3.95*** |
0.989
Persistence65d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0304 | 4.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0371 | 3.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9101 | 96.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0842 | 3.95*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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