V-Lab
iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
15.59%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
15.91%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
17.06%
increased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 227% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0306 | 19.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0375 | 12.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9093 | 383.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0851 | 15.85*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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