Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
27.28%
increased by 3.65%
1 Week
27.25%
increased by 3.62%
1 Month
27.12%
increased by 3.49%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2019 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 28-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0692 | 2.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.0471 | 1.71* |
| βGARCH | 0.8884 | 39.93*** |
| γleverage | 0.0792 | 1.61 |
0.975
Persistence28d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0692 | 2.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0471 | 1.71* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8884 | 39.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0792 | 1.61 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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