Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
38.18%
decreased by 1.93%
1 Week
37.73%
decreased by 2.38%
1 Month
36.15%
decreased by 3.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2019 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 29-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0678 | 2.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.0473 | 1.73* |
| βGARCH | 0.8894 | 40.82*** |
| γleverage | 0.0793 | 1.63 |
0.976
Persistence29d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0678 | 2.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0473 | 1.73* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8894 | 40.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0793 | 1.63 |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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