Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
37.63%
decreased by 2.30%
1 Week
37.22%
decreased by 2.71%
1 Month
35.83%
decreased by 4.10%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2019 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8395 | 5.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0988 | 4.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8737 | 33.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0087 | -1.31 |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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