iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
31.04%
decreased by 1.72%
1 Week
30.59%
decreased by 2.17%
1 Month
29.05%
decreased by 3.71%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6421 | 6.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1019 | 8.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8680 | 66.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0412 | -3.47*** |
| γ2 | 0.0583 | 3.47*** |
| γ3 | -0.0204 | -2.86*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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