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iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

36.50%

increased by 0.72%

1 Week

35.86%

increased by 0.08%

1 Month

33.66%

decreased by 2.12%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 24 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.6509
6.25***
αARCH0.1011
8.74***
βGARCH0.8700
68.09***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0400
-3.49***
γ20.0574
3.51***
γ3-0.0211
-3.00***

0.971

Persistence

24d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6509
6.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1011
8.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8700
68.09***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0400
-3.49***
γ20.0574
3.51***
γ3-0.0211
-3.00***

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

24 days