iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
36.50%
increased by 0.72%
1 Week
35.86%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
33.66%
decreased by 2.12%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 24 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6509 | 6.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.1011 | 8.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8700 | 68.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0400 | -3.49*** |
| γ2 | 0.0574 | 3.51*** |
| γ3 | -0.0211 | -3.00*** |
0.971
Persistence24d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6509 | 6.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1011 | 8.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8700 | 68.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0400 | -3.49*** |
| γ2 | 0.0574 | 3.51*** |
| γ3 | -0.0211 | -3.00*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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