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iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

21.95%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Week

21.95%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Month

21.98%

decreased by 0.35%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

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graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.6476
6.29***
αARCH0.1013
8.70***
βGARCH0.8688
66.89***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0401
-3.48***
γ20.0570
3.48***
γ3-0.0203
-2.90***

0.970

Persistence

23d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6476
6.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1013
8.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8688
66.89***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0401
-3.48***
γ20.0570
3.48***
γ3-0.0203
-2.90***

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

23 days