V-Lab
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
25.09%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Week
24.93%
decreased by 1.40%
1 Month
24.37%
decreased by 1.96%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6448 | 6.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1017 | 8.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8685 | 66.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0407 | -3.46*** |
| γ2 | 0.0577 | 3.46*** |
| γ3 | -0.0203 | -2.86*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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