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V-Lab

Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

35.59%

decreased by 2.63%

1 Week

35.14%

decreased by 3.08%

1 Month

33.58%

decreased by 4.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2019 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5216
7.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0898
13.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9743
270.56***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.2312
2.29**

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

27 days