Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

28.50%

decreased by 1.89%

1 Week

28.34%

decreased by 2.05%

1 Month

27.79%

decreased by 2.60%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 9.32 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.5050
1.93*
αARCH0.0885
3.46***
βGARCH0.9744
68.40***
νDF9.3165
0.56

0.974

Persistence

27d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5050
1.93*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0885
3.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9744
68.40***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.3165
0.56

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

27 days