V-Lab
Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
28.50%
decreased by 1.89%
1 Week
28.34%
decreased by 2.05%
1 Month
27.79%
decreased by 2.60%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 9.32 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.5050 | 1.93* |
| αARCH | 0.0885 | 3.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9744 | 68.40*** |
| νDF | 9.3165 | 0.56 |
0.974
Persistence27d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5050 | 1.93* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0885 | 3.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9744 | 68.40*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.3165 | 0.56 |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
27 days
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