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V-Lab

Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

36.18%

decreased by 2.71%

1 Week

35.69%

decreased by 3.20%

1 Month

34.00%

decreased by 4.89%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

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6M ·

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graph of Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2019 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5029
7.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0901
13.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9736
267.10***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.1741
2.29**

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days