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Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

25.86%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

25.98%

increased by 0.05%

1 Month

26.38%

increased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2019 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 150% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.09 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 150% more than positive returnsδ = 1.09 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0521
3.27***
αARCH0.0960
5.04***
βGARCH0.8943
43.24***
γleverage0.3982
2.36**
δpower1.0875
3.57***

0.972

Persistence

24d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0521
3.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0960
5.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8943
43.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3982
2.36**
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0875
3.57***

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

24 days