V-Lab
Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
25.86%
1 Week
25.98%
1 Month
26.38%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2019 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 150% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.09 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0521 | 3.27*** |
| αARCH | 0.0960 | 5.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8943 | 43.24*** |
| γleverage | 0.3982 | 2.36** |
| δpower | 1.0875 | 3.57*** |
0.972
Persistence24d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0521 | 3.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0960 | 5.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8943 | 43.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3982 | 2.36** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0875 | 3.57*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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