V-Lab
Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
39.78%
decreased by 2.39%
1 Week
39.50%
decreased by 2.67%
1 Month
38.63%
decreased by 3.54%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2019 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7771 | 45.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1628 | 16.76*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0708 | 1.13 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1067 | 1.44 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8696 | 9.10*** |
Persistence:
0.858
Half-life:
5 days
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