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V-Lab

Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

44.13%

decreased by 2.25%

1 Week

42.67%

decreased by 3.71%

1 Month

40.73%

decreased by 5.65%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2019 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7758
45.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1646
16.76***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0701
1.12
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1061
1.45
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8705
9.19***

Persistence:

0.858

Half-life:

5 days