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V-Lab

Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

33.64%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Week

35.19%

increased by 0.86%

1 Month

37.66%

increased by 3.33%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2019 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7780
46.46***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1642
16.89***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0672
1.18
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1035
1.48
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8743
9.82***

Persistence:

0.860

Half-life:

5 days