V-Lab
Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
29.34%
decreased by 1.20%
1 Week
29.71%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Month
30.05%
decreased by 0.49%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.7814 | 19.33*** |
| γleverage | 0.1586 | 4.89*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0741 | 1.54 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1049 | 1.57 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8692 | 10.84*** |
0.861
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7814 | 19.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1586 | 4.89*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0741 | 1.54 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1049 | 1.57 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8692 | 10.84*** |
Persistence:
0.861
Half-life:
5 days
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