Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
44.13%
decreased by 2.25%
1 Week
42.67%
decreased by 3.71%
1 Month
40.73%
decreased by 5.65%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2019 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7758 | 45.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1646 | 16.76*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0701 | 1.12 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1061 | 1.45 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8705 | 9.19*** |
Persistence:
0.858
Half-life:
5 days
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