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V-Lab

Invesco DB Energy Fund MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

35.18%

decreased by 1.56%

1 Week

35.27%

decreased by 1.47%

1 Month

35.74%

decreased by 1.00%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Energy Fund MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 96% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0557
12.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8807
131.10***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0532
9.37***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0190
5.94***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0379
4.24***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9564
95.65***

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

18 days