V-Lab
Invesco DB Energy Fund MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
35.18%
decreased by 1.56%
1 Week
35.27%
decreased by 1.47%
1 Month
35.74%
decreased by 1.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 96% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0557 | 12.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8807 | 131.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0532 | 9.37*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0190 | 5.94*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0379 | 4.24*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9564 | 95.65*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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