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V-Lab

Invesco DB Energy Fund MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

38.06%

increased by 0.26%

1 Week

38.14%

increased by 0.34%

1 Month

38.59%

increased by 0.79%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Energy Fund MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 95% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 95% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow71
αARCH0.0554
2.62***
βGARCH0.8812
42.68***
γleverage0.0524
2.32**
λ₁tau intercept0.0191
1.01
λ₂forecast adj.0.0396
1.54
λ₃tau persistence0.9547
31.30***

0.963

Persistence

18d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0554
2.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8812
42.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0524
2.32**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0191
1.01
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0396
1.54
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9547
31.30***

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

18 days