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V-Lab

Invesco DB Energy Fund MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

35.49%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

35.55%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Month

35.73%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Energy Fund MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 99% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0519
11.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8847
127.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0513
8.89***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0201
5.55***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0408
4.04***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9531
84.56***

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days