V-Lab
Invesco DB Energy Fund MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
38.06%
increased by 0.26%
1 Week
38.14%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
38.59%
increased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 95% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 95% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 71 | |
| αARCH | 0.0554 | 2.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8812 | 42.68*** |
| γleverage | 0.0524 | 2.32** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0191 | 1.01 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0396 | 1.54 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9547 | 31.30*** |
0.963
Persistence18d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0554 | 2.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8812 | 42.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0524 | 2.32** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0191 | 1.01 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0396 | 1.54 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9547 | 31.30*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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