V-Lab
Invesco DB Energy Fund MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
47.13%
decreased by 2.38%
1 Week
46.63%
decreased by 2.88%
1 Month
44.88%
decreased by 4.63%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 94% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0558 | 12.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8813 | 131.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0525 | 9.24*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0190 | 5.93*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0383 | 4.23*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9561 | 94.64*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
19 days
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