V-Lab
Invesco DB Energy Fund MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
35.49%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
35.55%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
35.73%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 99% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0519 | 11.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8847 | 127.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0513 | 8.89*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0201 | 5.55*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0408 | 4.04*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9531 | 84.56*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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