V-Lab
iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
15.25%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
15.65%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
17.11%
increased by 1.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 10, 1996 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 114 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 74% more than positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~114 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 74% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0305 | 3.06*** |
| αARCH | 0.0861 | 6.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8761 | 98.95*** |
| γleverage | 0.0635 | 2.29** |
0.994
Persistence114d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0305 | 3.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0861 | 6.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8761 | 98.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0635 | 2.29** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
114 days
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