V-Lab
iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
16.66%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
17.05%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
18.47%
increased by 1.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 9, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 329% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.40 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0304 | 19.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0728 | 33.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9229 | 467.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4778 | 19.89*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3994 | 38.56*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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