Skip to main content
V-Lab

iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

16.66%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

17.05%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

18.47%

increased by 1.34%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 9, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 329% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.40 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0304
19.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0728
33.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9229
467.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4778
19.89***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.3994
38.56***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

58 days