iShares MSCI Canada ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
16.49%
1 Week
16.70%
1 Month
17.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.16 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0201 | 7.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.0708 | 8.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9283 | 129.12*** |
| γleverage | 0.6681 | 6.81*** |
| δpower | 1.1563 | 10.41*** |
0.988
Persistence58d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0201 | 7.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0708 | 8.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9283 | 129.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6681 | 6.81*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1563 | 10.41*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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