V-Lab
iShares MSCI Canada ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
12.90%
increased by 0.39%
1 Week
13.06%
increased by 0.55%
1 Month
13.62%
increased by 1.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 47 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4325 | 8.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0875 | 8.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8978 | 85.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0010 | 4.47*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
Other iShares MSCI Canada ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs