V-Lab
iShares MSCI Canada ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
11.72%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
11.93%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
12.66%
increased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 47 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4329 | 8.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0871 | 7.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8984 | 85.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0010 | 4.47*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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