V-Lab
iShares MSCI Canada ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
11.35%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
11.66%
increased by 0.27%
1 Month
12.78%
increased by 1.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0196 | 16.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0209 | 11.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9177 | 497.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1030 | 21.53*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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