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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Canada ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

13.08%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

13.32%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Month

14.19%

increased by 0.78%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Canada ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0194
17.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0207
10.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9184
500.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1023
21.65***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days