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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Canada ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

14.14%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Week

14.35%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

15.10%

increased by 0.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Canada ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~69 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0197
4.16***
αARCH0.0208
2.76***
βGARCH0.9176
124.22***
γleverage0.1033
5.40***

0.990

Persistence

69d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0197
4.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0208
2.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9176
124.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1033
5.40***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

69 days