V-Lab
iShares MSCI Canada ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
13.08%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
13.32%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
14.19%
increased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0194 | 17.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0207 | 10.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9184 | 500.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1023 | 21.65*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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