iShares MSCI Canada ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
15.44%
increased by 2.06%
1 Week
15.60%
increased by 2.22%
1 Month
16.20%
increased by 2.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0196 | 4.15*** |
| αARCH | 0.0206 | 2.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9181 | 124.72*** |
| γleverage | 0.1028 | 5.41*** |
0.990
Persistence69d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0196 | 4.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0206 | 2.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9181 | 124.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1028 | 5.41*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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