iShares MSCI Canada ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
14.93%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
15.11%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
15.76%
increased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~69 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0196 | 4.16*** |
| αARCH | 0.0206 | 2.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9180 | 124.68*** |
| γleverage | 0.1028 | 5.41*** |
0.990
Persistence69d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0196 | 4.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0206 | 2.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9180 | 124.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1028 | 5.41*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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