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V-Lab

State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

18.66%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Week

18.74%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Month

19.03%

decreased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. The volatility power δ = 1.41 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0235
29.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0516
0.41
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9267
481.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
0.29
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4098
42.45***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days